It is not altogether common, in Vancouver, to wake to a sparkling, clear, warm blue sky, on the dawning morning of a World Cup.
This place, in this weather, has no rival in the world. To return from a few stimulating days in Berlin is a joy.
A few thoughts from a busy week:
What’s with the Frankfurt airport?
Buses on tarmacs. Little space to breathe. A brutal delay clearing EU customs on the way out for those of us who are not EU nationals… (and why is exit clearance even necessary, anyway?) Frankfurt is supposed to be Europe's central hub and it was logistically brutal to transfer through. Avoid.
Bless the PMF sense of style (really)!
SuperReturn was a sea of sameness: blue shirt on blue suits (no tie). As a friend put it: the suit is tremendous in a small group. In a crowd, it’s the height of conformity. The dealmakers in private markets are short on originality. Perhaps that is part of the problem… The crowds at our PMF events are far more so proud geeks. They dress differently, and I am proud of you all for it. 😅
SuperReturn’s sharpest take:
PE has digestion problem. The old liquidity machinery is no longer working. Maybe it’s permanent. And maybe that’s ok! A new market structure is emerging to drive turnover for those who want it. Continuation vehicles. Secondaries. Private markets are developing a proper market structure now. That's a data challenge as much as a dealmaking one, and it’s the real story in the industry. IYKYK.
McKinsey released its annual report on private credit this week. The industry’s net IRR in 2025? 8.5%.
In 2024: 7.0%.
Who wants to bet it ends higher in 2026, despite the storm?
I was honoured to moderate "Private Markets at Scale" at The Ecosystem Effect, Motive's event with S&P Global kicking off the week (thank you Rob Heyvaert and the team for having me).
We generally take for granted the industry projections that $10T+ is about flow in from wealth. But Andy Stewart rightly challenged that amid our preparation. To paraphrase: "Do we really know that over 10 trillion is coming? Investors have it pretty good. Are these private market products really better?"
And it's a conversation we need to be having. The product design for Main Street's entry into private markets is not done. The liquidity desires of the wealth channel aren’t well enough understood. There is lots of work to do here, and in syncing the product to its underlying rails.
The infrastructure to drive wealth at scale is of course nowhere near done either. If you’re reading this you know that, but you may not have thought deeply about the omnibus structure that’s a big part of the solution.
‘Taste’ has, of course always mattered. But it’s never mattered like it does now. AI is creating slop and the sense of craft that is the force behind true taste now sparkles all the more.
And no one in private markets stands near Motive on taste. They are a firm of deep intellect and insight, obviously. But they stand out for their taste, and they extend it across everything they do. More firms need it (see the bullet on style, above.).
A tip for those attending SuperReturn in future. There’s a fabulous beer garden less than half a mile from the venue, called Schleusenkrug, that is home to very few suits.
Go. Have a litre or so. Don’t have two.
I've said it before, I’ll say it again: John Markell is the best connected person in private credit, and he was proving it again amid Berlin nights throughout the week. Only Matt Schwartz may come close. 😃
(and both are true originals)
Potsdamer Platz was one of Europe's great central squares. Now it's... not. Its redesign was a miss. Berlin remains a city of complexity and reward - but you have to get out of east Charlottenburg or the souther part of the Tiergarten.
Speaking of Potsdamer: MSCI hosted their first ever dinner to kick off a SuperReturn, at the Ritz-Carlton, and drew an all-star cast of significant leaders. Smart. Thank you Ralph Eissler, Josh Bourone, Iyran Clunis and your colleagues and for a delightful evening.
I’ll close with this: there is no better feeling in the world than returning to your young family waiting for you at the airport. And my boys were accompanied this time by a roaring contingent of Turkish fans, and a Qatari Royal Air Force jet sitting on the tarmac.
It's a special time in the city. And it's a special time across our industry!
If you were in Berlin this week too and we didn’t catch up, sorry I missed you. But hit reply and tell me some thoughts.
I hit the road again in just 8 days for The Private Markets Technology Summit in London on June 25 and I’ll see a great many of you there. It’s set to be a fabulous group of 150 or so leading technologists who recognize private markets as the technology category it is.
A few spots remain - fire me a note if you want to come.
I like hearing from y’all - send a note anytime.
On we go!
Marc.